Inflation
Study of the Impact of Inflation and GDP Growth on Property-Liability and Life Insurance premiums over the last 30 Years: Case of the G7 Countries.
Economy - Finance > Inflation12/2010
We analyze the fluctuations in underwriting for the life and property-liability insurance segments, looking for the macro-economic fundamentals that may…
Alors qu’on s’était habitué à ne plus distinguer le “nominal” du “réel”, l’inflation semble faire son retour sur la scène…
Effects of Monetary Policy on Inflation
Global monetary conditions have often been cited as a driving factor of commodity prices. This paper investigates…
This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro…
Money, Reserves, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Does the Money Multiplier Exist?
Economy - Finance > Inflation05/2010
With the use of nontraditional policy tools, the level of reserve balances has risen significantly in the…
This paper uses a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) estimated on U.S. data in order to analyze…
Falling Behind the Curve: A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation
Economy - Finance > Inflation01/2010
This paper documents the evolution of long-run inflation expectations and models the stance of monetary policy from…
Residential investment in the United States averaged about 4½ percent of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) from…
Does globalization reduce the level of inflation? Does it change inflation dynamics? The theoretical and empirical answers…
Since the early 1980s, the United States economy has changed in some important ways: Inflation now rises…
It is crucial that central banks and regulatory authorities be aware of effects of asset price inflation…
Determinants and Channels of Inflation
Breakeven Inflation Rates and their Puzzling Correlation Relationships
Economy - Finance > Inflation02/2012
It is generally assumed that the two Fisher components of the interest rate -the real interest and…
In this paper we analyse the effects of informal labour markets on the dynamics of inflation and on…
Connectionist-Based Rules Describing the Pass-through of Individual Goods Prices into Trend Inflation in the United States
Economy - Finance > Inflation02/2011
This paper examines the inflation "pass-through" problem in American monetary policy, defined as the relationship between changes…
Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps
Economy - Finance > Inflation08/2010
This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below…
Catching-up and Inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and Other Culprits
Economy - Finance > Inflation07/2010
This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with…
Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
Economy - Finance > Inflation06/2010
Inflation followed a strikingly uniform pattern in all countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central…
Food Price pass-through in the Euro Area :The Role of Asymmetries and non-Linearities
Economy - Finance > Inflation04/2010
This paper documents the evolution of long-run inflation expectations and models the stance of monetary policy from…
Determinants of Inflation and Price Level Differentials across the Euro Area Countries
Economy - Finance > Inflation12/2009
This paper analyses the determinants of inflation differentials and price levels across the euro area countries. Dynamic…
Pass-through of external Shocks along the Pricing Chain: A Panel Estimation approach for the Euro Area
Economy - Finance > Inflation11/2009
In this paper we analyse in a mark-up framework the pass-through of commodity price and exchange rate…
What Triggers Prolonged Inflation Regimes? A Historical Analysis
Economy - Finance > Inflation11/2009
This paper empirically assesses which factors trigger prolonged periods of inflation for a sample of 91 countries…
Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that…
The paper analyzes the forces driving inflation in the new EU10 member countries. A significant part of…
Wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices in the presence of downward…
The global Dimension of Inflation - Evidence from Factor-Augmented Phillips Curves
Economy - Finance > Inflation02/2009
We examine the global dimension of inflation i n 24 OECD countries between 1980 and 2007 in…
Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: Is New Keynesian Analysis Critically Flawed?
Economy - Finance > Inflation12/2008
Cochrane (2007) has strongly questioned the basic economic logic of current mainstream monetary policy analysis, arguing that…
Increases in German core inflation following the 2007 VAT hike were smaller than expected, leading to speculation…
Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries and sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate sent commodities prices…
Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: the Impact of Increased Competition
Economy - Finance > Inflation10/2007
This paper analyzes the potential effect of global market competition on inflation dynamics. It does so through…
Inflation and Relative Prices Over the Last Decade: How Important was Globalization?”
Economy - Finance > Inflation08/2007
In this paper, the IMF’s new Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the relative importance…
The intertemporal budget constraint of the government implies a relationship between a ratio of current liabilities to…
We document that "persistent and lagged" inflation (with respect to output) is a world-wide phenomenon in that…
Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them
Economy - Finance > Inflation04/2006
This paper provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and…
With China’s share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002–03 that China was exporting deflation…
International Transmission of Inflation among G-7 Countries: A Data-Determined VAR Analysis
Economy - Finance > Inflation10/2005
We investigate the international transmission of inflation among G-7 countries using data-determined vector autoregression analysis, as advocated…
Many observers suggest that the "globalization" of the U.S. economy has changed the behavior of inflation. This…
This paper revisits the issue of what factors motivated the macroeconomic policies that led to the Great…
Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants…
Effects of Inflation
Estimates of the welfare costs of inflation based on Bailey (1956) are typically computed using aggregate money…
Welfare Costs of Inflation and the Circulation of US Currency Abroad
Economy - Finance > Inflation04/2010
We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in…
Estimating The Inflation-Growth Nexus — A Smooth Transition Model
Economy - Finance > Inflation03/2010
Motivated by the global inflation episode of 2007–08 and concern that high levels of inflation could undermine growth,…
On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand
Economy - Finance > Inflation12/2009
Post-1980 US data trace out a stable long-run money demand relationship of Cagan's semi-log form between the…
Inflation and Output Volatility under Asymmetric Incomplete Information
Economy - Finance > Inflation09/2009
The assumption of asymmetric and incomplete information in a standard New Keynesian model creates strong incentives for…
Does Stabilizing Inflation Contribute To Stabilizing Economic Activity?
Economy - Finance > Inflation05/2008
This paper discusses recent economic research that demonstrates that the objectives of price stability and stabilizing economic activity…
Previous literature has found that both unemployment and inflation lower happiness. This paper extends the literature by…
Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State
Economy - Finance > Inflation12/2005
This paper considers the appropriate stabilization objectives for monetary policy in a micro-founded model with staggered price-setting.…
We study the welfare cost of inflation in a general equilibrium life cycle model with growth, costly…
Assessing and Hedging Inflation Risk
How do inflation expectations form? New insights from a high-frequency survey
Economy - Finance > Inflation07/2011
We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of…
Measuring disagreement in UK consumer and central bank inflation forecasts
Economy - Finance > Inflation02/2011
We provide a new perspective on disagreement in inflation expectations by examining the full probability distributions of…
We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in…
We consider what, if any, relationship there is between monetary aggregates and inflation, and whether there is…
In the United States, the rate of price inflation falls in recessions. Turning this observation into a…
How Well Are Social Security Recipients Protected from Inflation?
Economy - Finance > Inflation07/2010
Social Security is widely believed to protect its recipients from inflation because benefits are indexed to the…
We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two regimes…
This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are…
This paper investigates the link between the perceived inflation risks in macroeconomic forecasts and the inflation risk premia embodied…
Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time: How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?
Economy - Finance > Inflation02/2010
This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies,…
The Fed model postulates that the dividend or earnings yield on stocks should equal the yield on…
Inflation perceptions and expectations in the euro area: the role of news
Economy - Finance > Inflation09/2009
The aim of this study is to assess empirically to what extent the degree of heterogeneity of…
Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy
Economy - Finance > Inflation08/2009
Inflation expectations play a central role in models of the Phillips curve. At long time horizons inflation…
Long-term investors face a common problem—how to maintain the purchasing power of their assets over time and…
Over the last two centuries, the cross-spectral coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation…
This paper documents a massive decline in long-term real interest rates from the 1990's until 2008, followed…
To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power…
The yield spread between nominal and inflation-linked bonds (or break-even inflation rates, BEIR) is a fundamental indicator…
The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation
Economy - Finance > Inflation07/2008
This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information…
Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?
Economy - Finance > Inflation06/2008
The ECB objective is set in terms of year on year growth rate of the Euro area…
Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs
Economy - Finance > Inflation03/2008
We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We…
Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs”
Economy - Finance > Inflation03/2008
We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth…
Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices
Economy - Finance > Inflation02/2008
We examine the informational content of TIPS yields from the viewpoint of a general 3-factor no-arbitrage term…
This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators as well as of a large range of economic…
For over ten years, the U.S. Treasury has issued index-linked debt. Federal Reserve Board staff have fitted…
“Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area than in the United States?
Economy - Finance > Inflation09/2007
This paper compares the recent evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United…
Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?
Economy - Finance > Inflation05/2007
Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out-of-sample: time…
The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting
Economy - Finance > Inflation07/2006
Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a…
Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy,…
Modelling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research
Economy - Finance > Inflation12/2005
In recent years, a broad academic consensus has arisen around the use of rational expectations sticky-price models…
Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases
Economy - Finance > Inflation09/2005
This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases…
The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
Economy - Finance > Inflation11/2004
A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve,…
The world's first known inflation-indexed bonds were issued by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in 1780 during the…
Analyzing 50 years of inflation expectations data from several sources, we document substantial disagreement among both consumers…
This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional…
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